The research objective is to examine the joint climate, agro-environmental, and economic induced changes to the trade network topologies of five staple foods, i.e., maize, rice, wheat, barley, and soybeans, up to the year 2050 in the European and Mediterranean region.

CMCC role

CIFTRESS is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships. CMCC co-hosts the project together with Ca’Foscari University and offers scientific supervision to the Fellow, Dr. Ali Kharrazi.

Activities

This proposed research adopts an interdisciplinary methodology drawing on crop yield modeling, economic trade modeling, network science, and quantitative scenario building approaches. More specifically, this research enhances the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) Model with fitness network formation and gravity trade models to reveal the regional origin and destination of staple commodities.

Expected results

The main innovations of this research project are the enhancement of the IMPACT model and in addition, the application of network analysis to interpret the ‘in-direct’ trade flow relationships which are not well captured by the current model. This will enable an analysis of climate change impacts on staple food trade in the light of the network-based configurations of network efficiency, redundancy, and modularity which are linked to the notions of food resilience and security.

Partner

Fondazione CMCC