This contract will aim at carrying out the European Climate Risk Assessment 2 (EUCRA-2). EUCRA-2 will ensure that Europe’s climate risk knowledge stays up-to-date and actionable throughout high-level risk assessments and recommendations tailored to EU policy contexts.

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Mathematical models have become central tools in global environmental assessments. To serve society well, climate change stabilization assessments need to capture the uncertainties of the deep future, be statistically sound and track near-term disruptions. Up to now, conceptual, computational and data constraints have limited the quantification of uncertainties of climate stabilization pathways to a narrow set, focused on the current century. The statistical interpretation of scenarios generated by multi-model ensembles is problematic due to availability biases and model dependencies. Scenario plausibility assessments are scant. Simplified, single-objective decision criteria frameworks are used to translate decarbonization uncertainties into decision rules whose understanding is not validated.

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Current global climate action is deeply insufficient to deliver the objectives of the Paris Agreement and containing global warming to 1.5 °C will likely require the deployment of carbon dioxide removals. However, the technologies to sequestrate and store carbon from the atmosphere are currently immature, risky, and highly questioned. Understanding the effective diffusion potential of carbon removal methods and their socioeconomic and environmental impacts is pivotal to design future climate action. FIND will help to develop an innovative framework to assess the feasibility and social desirability of limiting global warming through the diffusion of negative emission technologies. It aims to ensure that negative emission technologies act as an enabler, not a barrier, of long-run sustainable development. The project will evaluate climate and non-climate policies to create robust, no-regret policy portfolios supporting a rapid and sustainable path to a net-zero society. FIND will be of high relevance for public policy and civil society, especially considering Europe’s commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 while spurring green and inclusive growth.

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FOCCUS enhances CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service), for effective uptakes from the EU Member states to ensure a more sustainable Blue Economy and coastal resilience to climate change

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Europe’s urban areas face significant challenges to ensure the availability and consumption of healthy, affordable, safe and sustainably produced food. Such challenges converge within local food environments but are often neglected by public planners. Promising initiatives taken by municipalities to change the architecture of food choice often fail to become embedded in the wider policy context and to reach deprived and vulnerable groups. Key factors responsible for this are: (1) siloed ways of working and (2) fragmentation of knowledge on facilitators and barriers related to food system transformation. These factors hinder the development and implementation of integrated urban food policies. FOODCLIC aims to contribute to urban food environments that make healthy and sustainable food available, affordable and attractive to all citizens (including deprived and vulnerable groups).

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The EU target to significantly reduce its emissions by 2030 and become climate neutral by 2050 requires new mitigation measures within all sectors. Clear policy pathways are needed that outline alternative trajectories for European forests and the forest-based sector towards a climate-neutral and resilient society and economy. ForestPaths co-design, quantify and evaluate holistic forest-based policy pathways to optimize the contribution of forests and the forest-based sector to climate change mitigation, while considering the need to adapt forests to climate change, conserve biodiversity and sustain forest ecosystem services provisioning. ForestPaths goes beyond the state-of-the-art by finding feasible Climate & Biodiversity-Smart (CBS) options across Europe, suggesting effective mitigation actions, and analysing their co-benefits and trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services. ForestPaths engages with policymakers, forest practitioners, regional and national authorities, forest-based sector, certification bodies, researchers, and civil society in a co-design process to develop policy pathways and CBS options and maximize their practical usability, transparency, and trustworthiness. Openly available through an online policy support platform, pathways are quantified based on a next-generation assessment framework of models, tools, and data. This framework considers forest growth, climate change risks, as well as interactions between forests and the forest-based sector and economic system, supported by state-of-the art monitoring of forest disturbances, composition, and structure. The multidisciplinary consortium consists of research institutes, universities, and SMEs from across Europe, with leading expertise on climate, energy and biodiversity policies, complex system modelling, life-cycle analysis, remote sensing, disturbance ecology, forest and GHG inventories, social sciences, stakeholder process and communications.

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Industrial decarbonization is a critical frontier in global climate mitigation, yet significant uncertainty remains regarding the optimal technologies, policies, and viable strategies for achieving deep reductions in industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Macro-energy systems modeling can offer valuable insight, but current tools are limited by computational constraints that prevent them from capturing the technological detail, spatial/temporal resolution, and inter-sectoral coupling required for effective decision support. This project develops next-generation methods for high-fidelity, computationally efficient modeling of industrial decarbonization pathways, combining detailed process-level engineering with algorithmic advances in optimization-based systems modeling. Initial work focuses on the U.S. chemicals and fuels sector, with planned extensions to India and China.

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High-Performance Computing (HPC) is a major enabler of progress in many domains of science, including UN Sustainable Development goals towards improving population health and climate action. HPC is driving breakthroughs in genomics, drug discovery, and personalized medicine, as well as geophysical hazard simulations, improving preparedness for disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis, and supports weather and climate predictions. Europe is among the world leaders in HPC and with initiatives such as EuroHPC JU is advancing the usage of exascale computer systems for research. India is expanding its HPC capabilities through the National Supercomputing Mission, focusing on indigenous technology and fostering academic, industrial, and governmental collaborations. Combining Europe’s advanced infrastructure with India’s growing expertise offers opportunities for innovation in those strategic areas of climate modeling, disaster management, and healthcare. Shared resources and expertise can enhance predictive models, accelerate responses to pandemics, and foster technological and economic growth. The GANANA project is establishing a long-term partnership collaboration by uniting European HPC centers of excellence (BioExcel, ChEESE, ESiWACE3) and Indian institutions (C-DAC, IMD, ISR, NII, AIRAWAT) with the objectives to: • Strengthen the links between research communities in the priority domains by supporting existing and establishing new collaborative activities. • Setup and operate a range of activities in support of expertise exchange, capacity building and sharing of computing resources. • Develop selected leading software packages by extending their functionality, optimise HPC performance and scalability, deploy on target architectures, improve usability and data integration. • Expand the outreach, broaden the participation of external collaborators and

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GRACE project focuses on addressing the needs of rural and small and medium communities localised in EU Remote Rural Areas (RRAs) to adapt and build resilience against Climate Change, by strengthening their capacities and empowering them to become actors of change and take transformative action. A consortium of 27 organizations from 16 countries implements the project, with 5 Demonstrator Regions (DRs) in Austria, Denmark, Italy, Portugal and Sweden co-developing innovative solutions centered on naturebased approaches. These solutions are designed to deliver multifunctional, place-based social, environmental and economic benefits. In addition, circular economy principles will be embedded within these solutions to promote sustainable resource use, regenerative practices, and closed-loop systems, further enhancing local adaptation capacity. At the same time, the project will enhance local socio-economic activities, promote circular business models, maximize the value of natural capital, and help mitigate the challenges of depopulation and aging in RRAs. 5 Replicator Regions (RRs) in Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Slovakia and Ukraine will prepare for adopting the innovations developed by the DRs. Finally, GRACE will also engage Observer Regions (ORs) to follow and potentially replicate these solutions, fostering widespread CC adaptation across Europe’s rural areas. By integrating Nature-based Solutions (NBS), digital technologies, and inclusive community participation, GRACE will catalyze transformative adaptation in EU rural territories, ensuring that RRAs can successfully navigate climate challenges ahead and secure a sustainable, climate- resilient future.

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Reanalyses are dynamical, observation-based reconstructions of past ocean state and are the principal way for exploring the existence of processes and trends not mapped by the observation networks. Beside the scientific importance, Reanalyses are growing in popularity within the artificially intelligence sector, being widely exploited as reference states for training ML-based forecasters or simulators. However, each Reanalysis is affected by systematic errors that intrinsically depends on the specific set up of the production system. In this context CMCC is leading an international Consortium that produces and maintains an ensemble of global Reanalyses within the Copernicus Marine Service. Several state-of-the-art products are available for a multitude of different applications from science studies to AI training, together with a day-by-day assessment of reliability and uncertainties of whole ensemble.

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HEATSAFE directly tackles the need to adapt against climate change adverse effects in the whole Mediterranean area. The intensity of heatwaves is amplified in urban areas by factors such as the configuration of the city, the lack of vegetation or the materials of urbanized surfaces, so the strategy to mitigate their effects must be designed specifically for each territory. Sociodemographic conditions must also be considered, as significant correlation between exposure to extreme heat and socioeconomic vulnerability has been shown, leading to nearly double the mortality risk in some deprived districts. This local complex planning cannot be addressed without a clear methodology. In this sense, HEATSAFE will address the most suitable ways to adapt these territories to these effects by developing key activities in Spain, Italy. Albania, Bulgaria and Greece, and with the aim of replicating project approach in the whole Mediterranean area. HEATSAFE will improve the prevention, mitigation and management of risks arising from increased frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heatwaves in the Mediterranean basin through the co-development of local action plans and the implementation of demonstrative pilot actions; complemented by a long-term strategy and opensource tools to establish heat vulnerability maps across the MED area.

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HYRAD4CC (Hypermeteo and Radarmeteo for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation) is a research project funded by the Autonomous Province of Trento under Provincial Law 6/2023, aimed at developing advanced meteo-climatic data products and services for mountain territories. Within this framework, CMCC is responsible for the delivery of specific technical-scientific outputs, namely the production and quality assessment of very high-resolution reanalysis datasets over Italy, developed through advanced regional climate modelling and Artificial Intelligence techniques. These outputs, covering the period 1996–2025, are provided to Hypermeteo and Radarmeteo for their own downstream operational and application-oriented purposes.

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Il progetto è realizzato nell’ambito del quadro istituzionale della Direttiva europea sulla Strategia Marina e del suo recepimento normativo (D.lgs. n. 190 del 13 ottobre 2010), con il MASE (Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica) quale autorità di riferimento e l’ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale) come partner. L’iniziativa è finalizzata allo sviluppo e alla validazione di una metodologia integrata per la valutazione biofisica ed economica dei servizi ecosistemici marino-costieri e alla realizzazione di un tool informatizzato in ambiente GIS in grado di automatizzarne il calcolo e la restituzione cartografica. Il sistema consentirà di valutare in modo quantitativo servizi quali sequestro di carbonio, produzione di ossigeno, produzione di cibo, protezione dall’erosione e bioremediation, con applicazione in aree pilota e potenziale estensione a scala nazionale. Il progetto contribuisce a rafforzare le basi scientifiche a supporto delle attività di tutela, monitoraggio e ripristino degli ecosistemi marino-costieri.

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The IM4CA project will develop methods and deliver scientific knowledge and data on the regional and global sources and sinks of atmospheric methane in the past, present, and future. Based on this information, IM4CA will provide recommendations on effective measures to mitigate the adverse climate impacts of atmospheric methane as required by the Paris agreement and the Global Methane Pledge.

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Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity, and effective action depends on high-quality information on greenhouse gas sources and sinks. Such information must be usable, accessible, effective and interoperable, so that governments, citizens, businesses and civil society can make informed decisions in response to the climate crisis. The JOHN project — Joint Operations for monitoring antHropogenic and Natural GHG emissions and sinks — supports this need by strengthening the value chains that connect observations, data synthesis, analysis and reporting. Today, global knowledge of climate-controlling greenhouse gas cycles relies on a complex network of local, national and continental programmes, including those contributing to the Global Carbon Project. Although these systems provide authoritative annual information on the global carbon cycle, some of their underlying value chains are fragile or declining in quality. JOHN will contribute to the transformation of these systems, also in view of the WMO Global Greenhouse Gas Watch. The project will audit the current observing system, including governance and financial arrangements, identify barriers to improved performance, scan emerging technologies that can reduce costs, deliver practical improvements to existing value chains, and develop action plans for long-term transformation aligned with future funding opportunities.

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Recognizing the central role played by snow, ice and permafrost in the global climate system, the LIQUIDICE project joins expert cryospheric observers and modelers to: i) comprehensively re-assess the past and future century-plus of climate-induced high impact changes to the Greenland ice sheet and climate vulnerable locations across the Alps, Norway, High Mountain Asia (HMA) and Svalbard, including permafrost areas and their ecosystems; ii) develop new, expanded and harmonized data from satellite Earth Observation (EO) and ground stations; iii) use these data to improve and test a hierarchy of ice sheet and glacier models with Earth System Models (ESMs); iv) through these steps, yield new process understanding, and ultimately v) inform water resource, hydropower, and socio-economic strategies through clear and transparent communication of results and uncertainties. The project’s strengths lie in new multidisciplinary collaborations across 18 research institutions, from eight European countries (Poland, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Norway, United Kingdom) and India, encompassing expertise in field observations, satellite EO techniques, ESM development and application, and socio-economic analysis. Key deliverables include a) FAIR-principled new multi-decade data catalogues of multi-regional snow water equivalent and a 44-year EO-derived albedo record; b) assessments of impact of model resolution and degree of coupling on results; c) refined past and future glacier, ice cap and Greenland ice sheet freshwater fluxes to oceans and global sea level rise with indirect constraint on Antarctica; d) new hydrological simulations for HMA; e) a new framework for a Water Discharge Impact Assessments; f) socio-economic integrated risk and adaptation assessments;

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The global M4G project aims to provide a comprehensive framework for socio-economic energy-climate modelling in support of EU climate and energy policies and the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

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MAR-CO2 aims to develop fit-for-purpose MRV systems for mCDR, enabling safe, verifiable, and sustainable climate mitigation. The project’s core objective is to co-design, refine, and test MRV tools to quantify carbon removal additionality and durability, and assess ecological risks and co-benefits, along with the governance frameworks needed to ensure transparency, fairness, and public trust. These tools are tested in real-world conditions, moving beyond lab-scale studies to assess feasibility in the context of operational mCDR through industry partnerships. MAR-CO2 integrates interdisciplinary expertise from the fields of oceanography, modelling, ecology, social science, and governance, enabling the investigation of mCDR as a complex and interconnected human-environment system rather than simply a technological one. Advanced observational technology, experimental approaches, and multi-dimensional modelling help build a comprehensive understanding of mCDR and its impacts, and are used to develop a novel Digital Twin platform for simulating mCDR “what if” scenarios. Social perceptions are regularly queried and governance systems stress-tested to ensure MRV tools are socially just and governable. A co-design approach is deeply embedded in the project, with stakeholder mapping, public deliberation, and governance scenario stress-testing ensuring that the MRV systems developed in MAR-CO2 balance scientific rigor, accuracy, and equity with resource efficiency, governability, and transparency. MAR-CO2 contributes to EU climate leadership by supporting the integration of mCDR into climate strategies (e.g., CRCF, EU ETS), aligning with biodiversity protection goals, and advancing the European Digital Twin of the Ocean. By interfacing a team of prominent scientists with diverse public-sector and governance actors, and by using industry-led

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The Med-IREN project is strategically designed to demonstrate actionable solutions for climate-proofing critical infrastructures across the Mediterranean, with a particular focus on enhancing resilience through Nature-Based Solutions (NBS). These solutions will be applied to improve climate risk management and ensure business continuity in the face of extreme climate change. The project will be implemented in five key lighthouse regions across the Mediterranean (Granollers, PACA, Ischia, Tuscany, Egaleo), each addressing a specific, present-day challenge. These regions will align with regional policies, further contributing to the EU’s position as a global leader in climate resilience. Moreover, the project will leverage Dataclime, CMCC’s advanced climate service platform, to provide cutting-edge data and analytics for real-time monitoring and risk assessment, ensuring that the project’s impact is grounded in the most up-to-date scientific evidence and fostering actionable insights for stakeholders

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Natural hazards, such as extreme weather events, are exacerbated by climate change. As a result, emergency responses are becoming more protracted, expensive, frequent, and stretching limited available resources. This is especially apparent in rapidly warming regions. MedEWSa addresses these challenges by providing novel solutions to ensure timely, precise, and actionable impact and finance forecasting, and early warning systems (EWS) that support the rapid deployment of first responders to vulnerable areas.

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The project covers the validation and intercomparison of the next generation of global ocean reanalyses for the Copernicus Marine Service.