Terrestrial ecosystems are key to the functioning of the global carbon cycle and play a fundamental role in mitigating climate change. According to the Global Carbon Budget, about 30% of all the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted in the atmosphere is removed by vegetation uptake through photosynthesis and accumulation of biomass (so called CO2 sinks on land). Land use change, nutrient limitations, and extreme events (e.g. droughts, fires and heat waves) may limit this potential to sequester carbon.
Identifying processes that might destabilise net land carbon uptake is of paramount importance for understanding and managing the global carbon cycle.
CONCERTO aims to improve:
- the current understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle by adding land processes that are not included yet or not fully developed in Land Surface Models (LSMs);
- the representation of land change, land use and land management maps to improve the accuracy of carbon fluxes and stocks;
- the description of impacts on the carbon cycle of extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and fires, using tools such as state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) embedded into Earth system models (EMSs);
- the integration of LSM improvements in offline global simulations (driven by re-analyses) and in coupled ESMs.
48 months from 01/01/2025 to 01/12/2028
https://www.projectconcerto.eu
General aims
The CONCERTO project aims to develop a novel framework for understanding, monitoring and modeling the terrestrial carbon cycle to improve the quantification of ecosystem dynamics and enhance Earth system model climate projections. Multiple data sources, including Earth observation, data assimilation systems, machine learning algorithms and modelling approaches will be integrated to address the most important gaps and uncertainties in assessing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon balance. In the longer perspective, CONCERTO results shall contribute to a better assessment of the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate extremes and disturbances, thus supporting the implementation of adaptation strategies and policies to climate change.
CMCC role
Project coordinator (PI)
Leader of WP5 “Improve land carbon cycle processes within ESMs”
Leader of WP8 “Project Management”
CMCC also plays a key role participating to implement various tasks within all project work packages.
Activities
CONCERTO will exploit multiple EO products and use different techniques for: (1) Data assimilation; (2) Designing a new approach to force the P model; (3) Developing top-down isoprene emission fluxes; (4) Creating new HR maps of LU, LAI and management. In CONCERTO the data assimilation tool will simultaneously exploit EO-based proxies of vegetation (LAI, SIF, AGB) to represent the spatial and temporal scales of vegetation processes and compensate for ESM deficiencies. CONCERTO will employ a comprehensive suite of models with a different degree of complexity in terms of the number of parameters which determine the speed of runs. Model improvements will be implemented in each model structure depending on the model structure and complexity. Model simulations will be confronted with observations, both in situ and from space, thus enabling an unprecedented comprehensive analysis of the terrestrial carbon cycle and its drivers. Besides the improved representation of carbon cycle processes in LSMs, coupling of a terrestrial component in an Earth System model provides insight into the land-atmosphere carbon fluxes. This will enable the use of improved LSMs for multidecadal to centennial studies in a state-of-the-art Earth System Model.
Expected results
Addressing the challenge of capturing variations in carbon processes across diverse spatial and temporal scales, CONCERTO seeks to provide accurate estimates of carbon sinks and sources, which are essential for understanding the global carbon budget and achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
CONCERTO will refine the representation of land cover, leaf area index and management intensity by generating high-resolution maps with layers critical to the carbon cycle. These improvements will contribute to more accurate estimates of changes in carbon stocks due to management of ecosystems. It will also help in better understanding the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in terrestrial ecosystems.
Moreover, the project will enable land surface models to integrate FLEX data through data assimilation methods and leverage Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI HCHO data to better capture biogenic volatile organic compound emissions. Through seasonal and climate experiments, the project demonstrates how refined representations of land surface processes improve global Earth system simulations, enhancing predictability and supporting efforts toward carbon neutrality.
Partners
FONDAZIONE CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI – CMCC
METEOROLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH OBSERVATION SRL – MEEO
SISTEMA GMBH – SIS
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS – ECMWF
BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACIÓN – BSC
UNIVERSITEIT ANTWERPEN – UA
CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN ECOLÓGICA Y APLICACIONES FORESTALES – CREAF
UNIVERSITEIT TWENTE -UT
INSTITUT ROYAL D’AÉRONOMIE SPATIALE DE BELGIQUE – BIRA
POLITECNICO DI TORINO – POLITO
PENSOFT PUBLISHERS – PENSOFT
THE UNIVERSITY OF READING – UREAD
IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE – ICL