Delivering validated climate services for resilient European Sea on a decadal to multi-decadal horizon is a challenge. RIVIERADE brings together the scientific communities geared into CORDEX and the Copernicus Marine Service and capitalizes on their unique scientific experience to develop and implement a pre-operational and replicable multi-model framework and protocols to produce, downscale, assess and deliver state-of-the-art decadal predictions and multi-decadal projections of climate change and related impacts on marine ecosystems, covering the basin scale and the coastal areas, up to, and including, development and demonstration of climate services.
RIVIERADE will target three European Seas (Baltic, Black, Mediterranean), to produce data and information for ocean health, sustainable blue economy, and coastal climate risks, down streaming the data flow from climate ensembles to coastal areas at different spatial resolutions and for selected areas, in a circular process based on users and stakeholders engagement, co-design and assessment of innovative climate services.
48 Months from 01/01/2026 to 31/12/2029
General aims
The proposed methodology will employ high-resolution regional Earth Systems, ocean, marine ecosystem, and impact models of different complexity and will include both traditional and new ocean modelling approaches with the final objective of delivering: (i) coordinated and harmonized multi-model datasets of high-resolution decadal and multi-decadal scenario simulations for the three European target seas (ii) demonstrators of climate services at European Sea basin scale (3 seas), coastal regional (4 subregional areas) and local (4 local use cases) scales.
These datasets, together with the framework proposed to produce the coastal climate services, and the portfolio of Delivering validated climate services for resilient European coastal areas on a decadal to multi-decadal horizon represents a challenge in the development of the EU Green Deal and the setting up of reliable digital twins for the ocean.
CMCC role
CMCC participates in:
- WP1 “Management, Coordination, Communication, Dissemination and Exploitation”
- WP3 “Decadal horizon: benefiting from realistic initialization”
- WP4 “Basin-scale Multi-Decadal Climate Projection Grand Ensamble for the European target seas physics”
- WP6 “Building basin-scale to coastal areas climate services for ocean health, blue economy and costal risks and developing solutions for specific use cases”
Activities
In WP1, FONDAZIONE CMCC will contribute to the overall project coordination activities, as well as in its capacity as the institution leading WP3 on the decadal horizon. Furthermore, in WP1, FONDAZIONE CMCC will support the communication, dissemination, and exploitation of the project results.
In WP3, FONDAZIONE CMCC will coordinate the activities and contribute to the development of downscaling approaches specifically designed for the three target seas, in order to produce high-resolution decadal predictions.
In WP4 FONDAZIONE CMCC will contribute to the design, production, analysis, and evaluation of a coordinated grand ensemble of high-resolution, multi-model and multi-decadal climate simulations for the three target European seas. This will provide an assessment of the climate-change impact on the physical characteristics of the target seas at the basin scale and on multi-decadal timescales.
In WP6, FONDAZIONE CMCC will contribute to the development of protocols for basin-scale ocean–climate services addressing coastal risks, ocean health, and the sustainable blue economy based on the climate projections. Indicators in support of the blue economy, with demonstrators showcased in the Adriatic Sea, will be co-designed with stakeholders, tested, and validated.
Expected results
Fit-for-purpose and well-documented modelling platform configurations for multi-decadal projections of the basin-scale European seas, accompanied by reference publications or technical reports. Multi-decadal scenario simulations for the Mediterranean basin suitable for providing enhanced information on the basin’s hydrological cycle and its extremes, and for improving the assessment of basin water levels and related coastal hazards. A CMOR-standardized basin-scale model output dataset, ready for publication on the ESGF at the end of the project. Methods and tools for the downscaling of decadal climate predictions in the Mediterranean region. A use case for coastal risk and the blue economy in the Northern Adriatic, with at least 10 indicators produced. Improved knowledge and capacity of end-users and practitioners regarding the assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. At least three publications in top-ranking scientific sector journals.
Partners
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS-FR)
- Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti climatici (CMCC);
- Stichting Ihe Delft Institute for Water Education (IHE DELFT-NL);
- Leibniz-institut fur Ostseeforschung Warnemunde (IOW-DE):
- Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI-SW);
- Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, L’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA-IT);
- Univesitè de Liege (ULIEGE-BE)
- Middle east Technical University (METU-TR)