FutureMARES – Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity

FutureMARES provides socially and economically viable nature-based solutions (NBS) for climate change (CC) adaptation and mitigation to safeguard these ecosystems’ natural capital, biodiversity and services. The program advances understanding of the links between species and community traits, ecological functions and ecosystem services as impacted by CC by analysing the best available data from monitoring programs and conducting targeted experiments and beyond state-of-the-art modelling. Ensemble physical-biogeochemical projections will identify CC hotspots and refugia. Shifts in the distribution and productivity of keystone, structural and endangered species and the consequences for biodiversity will be projected within different CC-NBS scenarios to reveal potential ecological benefits, feedbacks and trade-offs. Novel, social-ecological vulnerability assessments will rank the severity of CC impacts on various ecosystem services and dependent human communities. Complementary analyses at real- world demonstration sites will inform managers and policy-makers on the economic costs and tradeoffs of NBS.

Duration
48 months from 01/09/2020 to 30/08/2024

Coordinating organization
  • UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG (UHAM)

CMCC Scientific Leader
CMCC Project manager
Division

General objectives

Physical, ecological, social and economic analyses will be integrated to develop three, climate-ready NBS: i) restoration of habitat-forming species acting as ‘climate rescuers’ buffering coastal habitats from negative CC effects, improving seawater quality, and sequestering carbon, ii) conservation actions explicitly considering the range of impacts of CC and other hazards on habitat suitability for biota to preserve the integrity of food webs (e.g. marine protected areas) and protect endangered species (e.g. charismatic megafauna), and iii) sustainable, ecosystem-based harvesting (capture and culture) of seafood. FutureMARES is co-developed with policy-makers and managers to ensure impactful and transformative cost-effective actions.

CMCC role

CMCC participates in WP1, WP2, WP5, WP6, WP7, WP8 and WP9

Activities

ODA: Development of ensemble of regionally downscaled projections for project case study areas with uncertainty constraints and development of indicators of the marine environment relevant to biodiversity and ecosystem services (WP2). Advice to scenario definitions (WP1), sustaining climate-readiness of nature-based solutions (WP6, T6.1), policy dialogue (WP7) and outreach activities (WP8)

ECIP: Participation in WP6, task 6.2, applying ECIP’s macro-economic model to assess the effectiveness of NBS to preserve the provisioning services of marine ecosystems in selected areas. ECIP will also contribute to the project scenario definition.

Expected results

ODA: Datasets of ensemble of regional downscaled projections of the marine biogeochemistry, uncertainty assessment and individuation of climate change hot-spots and refugia of biodiversity and ecosystem function.

ECIP: Macro-economic assessment of costs, benefits and challenges of nature- based solutions.

Partner

AARHUS UNIVERSITET (AU)

ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS (AUTH)

FUNDACION AZTI – AZTI FUNDAZIOA (AZTI)

CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS AVANZADADOS EN ZONAS ARIDAS (CEAZA)

THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR ENVIRONMENT, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS (Cefas)

CIIMAR – Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental (Ciimar)

AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DEINVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS (CSIC)

COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (CZMAI)

DEVON COUNTY COUNCIL (DCC)

STICHTING DELTARES (Deltares)

DANMARKS TEKNISKE UNIVERSITET (DTU)

CENTRO DE CIENCIAS DO MAR DO ALGARVE (CCMAR)

HELMHOLTZ ZENTRUM FUR OZEANFORSCHUNG KIEL (GEOMAR)

HELLENIC CENTRE FOR MARINE RESEARCH (HCMR)

ICETA INSTITUTO DE CIENCIAS, TECNOLOGIAS E AGROAMBIENTE DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO (ICETA-CIBIO)

ISRAEL OCEANOGRAPHIC AND LIMNOLOGICAL RESEARCH LIMITED (IOLR)

INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT (IRD)

INSTITUT NATIONAL DE RECHERCHE POUR L’AGRICULTURE, L’ALIMENTATION ET L’ENVIRONNEMENT (INRA)

MARINE BIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED KINGDOM (MBA)

NORSK INSTITUTT FOR VANNFORSKNING (NIVA)

PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY LIMITED (PML)

CONSORZIO DI GESTIONE DELL’AREA MARINA PROTETTA DEL PROMONTORIO DI PORTOFINO (PMPA)

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON (SOTON)

STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET (SU)

SUOMEN YMPARISTOKESKUS (SYKE)

JOHANN HEINRICH VON THUENEN-INSTITUT, BUNDESFORSCHUNGSINSTITUT FUER LAENDLICHE RAEUME, WALD UND FISCHEREI (TI)

WCMC LBG (UNEP-WCMC)

UNIVERSITA DI PISA (UNIPI)

UNIVERSIDAD DE VIGO (UVIGO)

STICHTING WAGENINGEN RESEARCH (WUR)

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