RP0230 – Performance evaluation of integrated system to model the climate change impacts on hydro-geological hazard

This paper provides the main results about the validation of the modeling chain used to estimate the variation in geo-hydrological hazard induced by Climate Changes (CC); it represents one of the milestone for year 2014 of GEMINA project within the work package A.2.17. In particular, the work package A.2.17 “Analysis of geological risk related to climate change” has as main goal the analysis of the impacts of Climate Changes on occurrence and magnitude of landslides, floods and low flows conditions on some specific contexts of the Mediterranean area. We show that the integrated system combines, in adequate way, high resolution regional climate scenarios, models of impacts and statistical downscaling techniques. In addition, this document contains a description of test cases on which the integrated system has been verified.

  • Keywords: dynamical downscaling, quantile mapping, floods, Po river basin, pyroclastic covers, flowslides

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