EUCP – European Climate Prediction system

The project aims to develop an innovative European climate climate prediction system for the European climate forecasting system (EUCP)

General aims

General objectives
The European Climate Prediction system project (EUCP) has four objectives:
1. Develop an innovative ensemble climate prediction system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe for the near-term (~1-40years);
2. Use the climate prediction system to produce consistent, authoritative and actionable climate information;
3. Demonstrate the value of this climate prediction system through high impact extreme weather events in the near past and near future;
4. Develop, and publish, methodologies, good practice and guidance for producing and using authoritative climate predictions for 1-40year timescale.

CMCC role
CMCC is co-leader of WP1 and also contributes to the WP2, WP3, WP4 and WP6 of the project.

Activities
In WP1, CMCC contributes to the delivery of the latest and more complete information on climate predictions to the project partners. Besides, both post–CMIP5 and CMIP6 decadal predictions are assessed in terms of predictive skill, and mechanisms responsible for decadal predictability. CMCC contributes also to deliver final recommendations needed to improve the forecast quality of next generation’s decadal prediction systems. In WP2, CMCC works on the evaluation of uncertainty in ensembles of long term projections due to internal climate variability at different spatial and temporal aggregations. In this framework, one of the main focus is on the role of the ensemble size in the uncertainty quantification. In WP3, CMCC contributes to provide a demonstration of the added value of using high resolution atmospheric simulations (ranging 1.5 and 3km), permitting explicit convection representation. In particular CMCC, together with the other partners, performs new climate simulations over Europe at a resolution of about 3 km. Simulations are provided with the model COSMO-CLM including the urban parameterization over 2 different domains: one covering the central part of Europe (named Extended Alpine region) and the South West area of Europe. CMCC contributes also to WP4 to assess needs and requirements by the potential users of climate services and to the assessment of the value originated by those services. This analysis is supported by the application of the “value of information” approach. CMCC supports EUCP partners in the construction of social economic scenarios that complement climatic scenarios as background for the application of climate services. Furthermore, in WP4, CMCC contributes to the uptake of the new climate prediction systems developed by EUCP through a variety of climate services and tailored adaptation studies. The new climate simulation is used for assessing urban and coastal flood risks and cascading effects.

Finally, in WP6, CMCC contributes to establishing and running a User Forum evolving various international and national experts, promoting the use of the new climate insights and more generally to the communication activities of the project.

Expected results
Production of updated climate predictions and analysis of the predictive skill of current state-of-the-art decadal forecasting systems. Drawing up recommendations to improve the quality of decadal climate forecasts. Evaluation of the uncertainty related to the internal variability of the climate system at different spatial and temporal scales. Production of very high resolution climate projections (3 km) for the Alpine area and southern Europe. Definition of the value originated by climate services based on the forecasts produced by the project. Definition of macro-economic scenarios that, together with the climatic ones, outline the application context of climate services.

Partner
Met office, BSC, CNRS, Deltares, DMI, ETH Zurig, HZG, UNESCO, IIASA, KNMI, SMHI, UEDIN, UOXF, UCPH, NLeSC.

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