RP0233 – High resolution climate scenarios on Mediterranean test case areas for the hydro-climate integrated system

This document is aimed to show the main results of climate projections, under two RCPs, at 2100 obtained in WP A.2.6 “High-resolution climate scenarios” on the geo-hydrological hotspots identified within WP A.2.17 “Analysis of geo-hydrological risk related to climate change” of GEMINA project. The main goal of WP A.2.17 is the analysis of the effect of climate changes on occurrence and magnitude of landslides, floods and low flows hazards on some specific contexts of the Mediterranean area. To reach this objective, climate data at the same horizontal resolution (<10 km) of impacts model are required. Within GEMINA project, the generation of high-resolution climate scenarios is one of the aims of WP A.2.6. Thus, in this research paper, the projected climate changes obtained in WP A.2.6 coupling the GCM CMCC-CM with the RCM COSMO-CLM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are discussed on the following test case areas identified in WP A.2.17: Po river basin, Cervinara and Orvieto sites. Some details on validation of the climate model on the same areas are also given.

  • Keywords: Climate scenarios, RCM, GCM, high resolution, landslides, flood, droughts, Po river basin

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