RP0253 – The new CMCC – Seasonal Prediction System

This technical report describes the new Seasonal Prediction System (the CMCC-SPS) developed at CMCC to perform seasonal forecasts operationally. Compared to the previous system, the new model has a completely different dynamical core, based on the new CMCC Earth System Model (the CMCC-CEMS-NEMO, see research paper RP0248 [7]). Also, the new system features higher resolution of both the atmospheric and oceanic components, as well as a larger ensemble size (20 members) and more realistic initialization of the land, sea-ice and marine modules. These improvements are expected to have a positive impact on the predictive skill of the new system. The present document describes the operational seasonal forecast protocol. After a brief description of each system component, the initialization strategy is discussed along with the main characteristics of the forecast system from a technical point of view. A preliminary analysis of its performance and skill is presented for the currently available hindcast period 1981–1990.

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