Mathematical models have become central tools in global environmental assessments. To serve society well, climate change stabilization assessments need to capture the uncertainties of the deep future, be statistically sound and track near-term disruptions. Up to now, conceptual, computational and data constraints have limited the quantification of uncertainties of climate stabilization pathways to a narrow set, focused on the current century. The statistical interpretation of scenarios generated by multi-model ensembles is problematic due to availability biases and model dependencies. Scenario plausibility assessments are scant. Simplified, single-objective decision criteria frameworks are used to translate decarbonization uncertainties into decision rules whose understanding is not validated. 

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This study explores the indirect economic impacts of climate change on the Finnish economic The focus of the analysis is to illustrate different pathways and their importance for the country as a whole, and for specific sectors that can prepare for foreseeable impacts by increasing their resilience or adaptive capacity.

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Current global climate action is deeply insufficient to deliver the objectives of the Paris Agreement and containing global warming to 1.5 °C will likely require the deployment of carbon dioxide removals. However, the technologies to sequestrate and store carbon from the atmosphere are currently immature, risky, and highly questioned. Understanding the effective diffusion potential of carbon removal methods and their socioeconomic and environmental impacts is pivotal to design future climate action. FIND will help to develop an innovative framework to assess the feasibility and social desirability of limiting global warming through the diffusion of negative emission technologies. It aims to ensure that negative emission technologies act as an enabler, not a barrier, of long-run sustainable development. The project will evaluate climate and non-climate policies to create robust, no-regret policy portfolios supporting a rapid and sustainable path to a net-zero society. FIND will be of high relevance for public policy and civil society, especially considering Europe’s commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 while spurring green and inclusive growth.

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The project fits into a broad system of observation, monitoring, and analysis of the marine environment that addresses the need to harmonize the protection of marine ecosystems with the proper management and development of coastal area uses. The response of natural systems to variations generated by specific coastal interventions overlaps with the variations induced by climate trends and territorial changes (land use, riverbed interventions, industries) occurring in the relevant basins, generating an overlap of effects that modulate the evolution of the receiving sea area and coasts on different spatial and temporal scales. The study area is dominated by the presence of the Tiber River, which, being the main watercourse of central Italy, significantly influences the sediment balance in the area and the distribution of biocoenoses. The same area will be affected by a series of activities related to the construction of new port infrastructures. To analyze such a complex system and to separate as accurately as possible the variations induced by a project from the evolution of the system itself, it is therefore essential to know the physical and dynamic characteristics of the study area and the current environmental state, through an in-depth analysis of the main impacts and pressures affecting the entire area and its habitats. This project aims to study the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the area between Capo Linaro and Capo d’Anzio through a multidisciplinary study that involves the integration of observational data and numerical modeling and to support the development of the works and

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FOCCUS enhances CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service), for effective uptakes from the EU Member states to ensure a more sustainable Blue Economy and coastal resilience to climate change

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Europe’s urban areas face significant challenges to ensure the availability and consumption of healthy, affordable, safe and sustainably produced food. Such challenges converge within local food environments but are often neglected by public planners. Promising initiatives taken by municipalities to change the architecture of food choice often fail to become embedded in the wider policy context and to reach deprived and vulnerable groups. Key factors responsible for this are: (1) siloed ways of working and (2) fragmentation of knowledge on facilitators and barriers related to food system transformation. These factors hinder the development and implementation of integrated urban food policies. FOODCLIC aims to contribute to urban food environments that make healthy and sustainable food available, affordable and attractive to all citizens (including deprived and vulnerable groups).

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The EU target to significantly reduce its emissions by 2030 and become climate neutral by 2050 requires new mitigation measures within all sectors. Clear policy pathways are needed that outline alternative trajectories for European forests and the forest-based sector towards a climate-neutral and resilient society and economy. ForestPaths co-design, quantify and evaluate holistic forest-based policy pathways to optimize the contribution of forests and the forest-based sector to climate change mitigation, while considering the need to adapt forests to climate change, conserve biodiversity and sustain forest ecosystem services provisioning. ForestPaths goes beyond the state-of-the-art by finding feasible Climate & Biodiversity-Smart (CBS) options across Europe, suggesting effective mitigation actions, and analysing their co-benefits and trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services. ForestPaths engages with policymakers, forest practitioners, regional and national authorities, forest-based sector, certification bodies, researchers, and civil society in a co-design process to develop policy pathways and CBS options and maximize their practical usability, transparency, and trustworthiness. Openly available through an online policy support platform, pathways are quantified based on a next-generation assessment framework of models, tools, and data. This framework considers forest growth, climate change risks, as well as interactions between forests and the forest-based sector and economic system, supported by state-of-the art monitoring of forest disturbances, composition, and structure. The multidisciplinary consortium consists of research institutes, universities, and SMEs from across Europe, with leading expertise on climate, energy and biodiversity policies, complex system modelling, life-cycle analysis, remote sensing, disturbance ecology, forest and GHG inventories, social sciences, stakeholder process and communications.

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The overall objective of this two-year project is to assist efforts to boost resilience of communities in flood prone areas. It does so by 1) identifying important factors which amplify or dampen flood resilience as well as strategies and measures that increase flood resilience; 2) providing guidance on the operational use of ‘flood resilience’ into flood risk management (FRM) and 3) providing practical policy recommendations to aid the implementation of the EU Flood Risk Directive (FRD).

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For the first time, all major European modelling and infrastructure efforts are coordinated within a dedicated project to develop and deploy a sustainable and unified system for delivering future emissions and land-use scenarios, and climate and impact projections. This system is referred to hereafter as the’climate pathways system’. It is designed to support climate research, international assessments, and climate policy for the coming decades. FUTURA explores how to design a new cyclical scenario generation protocol built from process-resolving models complemented by emulator and AI approaches. It shifts from causal-chain modelling workflows to a unified system that unifies multi-annual process-driven iterations complemented by the ability to run fast annual iterations. We address how to best align this system with policy timeframes, and how to effectively leverage the model and data multiverse to advance understanding while supporting researchers, practitioners, and policymakers. The FUTURA climate pathways system represents a significant step towards the sustained and responsive delivery of climate projections in support of climate assessment and policy.

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FutureMARES provides socially and economically viable nature-based solutions (NBS) for climate change (CC) adaptation and mitigation to safeguard these ecosystems’ natural capital, biodiversity and services. The program advances understanding of the links between species and community traits, ecological functions and ecosystem services as impacted by CC by analysing the best available data from monitoring programs and conducting targeted experiments and beyond state-of-the-art modelling. Ensemble physical-biogeochemical projections will identify CC hotspots and refugia. Shifts in the distribution and productivity of keystone, structural and endangered species and the consequences for biodiversity will be projected within different CC-NBS scenarios to reveal potential ecological benefits, feedbacks and trade-offs. Novel, social-ecological vulnerability assessments will rank the severity of CC impacts on various ecosystem services and dependent human communities. Complementary analyses at real- world demonstration sites will inform managers and policy-makers on the economic costs and tradeoffs of NBS.

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High-Performance Computing (HPC) is a major enabler of progress in many domains of science, including UN Sustainable Development goals towards improving population health and climate action. HPC is driving breakthroughs in genomics, drug discovery, and personalized medicine, as well as geophysical hazard simulations, improving preparedness for disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis, and supports weather and climate predictions. Europe is among the world leaders in HPC and with initiatives such as EuroHPC JU is advancing the usage of exascale computer systems for research. India is expanding its HPC capabilities through the National Supercomputing Mission, focusing on indigenous technology and fostering academic, industrial, and governmental collaborations. Combining Europe’s advanced infrastructure with India’s growing expertise offers opportunities for innovation in those strategic areas of climate modeling, disaster management, and healthcare. Shared resources and expertise can enhance predictive models, accelerate responses to pandemics, and foster technological and economic growth. The GANANA project is establishing a long-term partnership collaboration by uniting European HPC centers of excellence (BioExcel, ChEESE, ESiWACE3) and Indian institutions (C-DAC, IMD, ISR, NII, AIRAWAT) with the objectives to: • Strengthen the links between research communities in the priority domains by supporting existing and establishing new collaborative activities. • Setup and operate a range of activities in support of expertise exchange, capacity building and sharing of computing resources. • Develop selected leading software packages by extending their functionality, optimise HPC performance and scalability, deploy on target architectures, improve usability and data integration. • Expand the outreach, broaden the participation of external collaborators and

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This project aims at mobilising climate, water and land-use knowledge, private finance and public policy through participatory social networks.

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GEMCLIME is a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project, funded within the framework of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. The global GEMCLIME project focuses on major aspects of energy economics and climate change, which is a prime example of an important global and complex scientific and policy problem.